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日経225先物オプション実況スレ31067
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0001内田彩
垢版 |
2018/06/13(水) 09:09:48.63
　　　　　　 　　　　　　＿＿＿＿
　　　　　　　　　　　.／, - ､, - ､　　￣ ヽ
　　　　　　　　　　./-┤　｡|｡　 |――-､　ヽ
　　　　　　 　 　　|　ヽ｀- ○- ´ ／　　ヽ　 |
　　　　　　 　 　　|　-　　 |　 　 　―　　 |　 |
　　　　　　 　 　　|　 ´　　|　 　　｀ヽ　 .　|　 |ヽ
　　∩　　　　　　人｀､ _ 　|　 　　＿.- ´ |　.|　　＼
　　|　　⌒ヽ　／　 ＼　￣￣￣　 　　 ノノ 　 　 　 ＼
　　1　 　 　 |´　 　 　　|￣―--―― ´ヽ 　 　 ＿　　／⌒＼
　　＼_ 　 _/-―――.|　（ Ｔ ）　　　　　　｀l 　 　 Τ（　 　 　 ）
　 　 　 ￣　　　　　　 |　　￣　　　　　　 　}　 　 　 |　＼＿／
　　　　　　　　　　　　 | ､--―　￣|　 　　/
良い歳してラブライブ声優の小宮有紗ちゃんの薄着画像で抜きまくってる哀れな珍カス基地外ニートすずはらみさきち ◆5oR0dKBDzY(爆笑wwwwwwwwwwww
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DfYzwj1UYAEyrsK.jpg#orig.jpg
0635山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:49:44.07ID:prJdfRPb0
この年4回発言は、また忘れた頃に大人が仕掛けそうだな
0636山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:49:49.16ID:AHWcm+nhd
カリアゲ会談を通過した安心感も効いてる
0640山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:50:47.37ID:JoyZFPM00
で，どうやって儲けるか
頭のいいヤツは今必死で考えてるんだろうねぇ
0641山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:50:58.78ID:F+fWBbWSa
期近の屑プット買うのめんどくさい(´・ω・`)

もう９月限１２月限買う事にするわ
１万くらい大暴落すれば噴くべ(´・ω・`)
0642山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:51:12.39ID:IHiBaBkg0
>> SAM: Thanks very much. Sam Fleming from the Financial Times. Over the weekend we saw
significant tensions within the G7 in Canada. There is the potential, obviously, for further action
against China right now and retaliatory action from major U.S. trading partners. How big a risk do
you currently see this as being to the United States' economy, and what kind of feedback are
you getting in terms of corporate investment and tensions? Is this something that's beginning
to feature more prominently in your own discussions with major U.S. companies? Thanks.
>> CHAIRMAN: I ought to start by saying that, you know, Congress has assigned us very
important jobs, and, you know, maximum employment, stable prices, we have a role in financial
stability that we share with other agencies. Congress has specifically given authority over
trade to the executive branch, so I wouldn't comment on any specific trade actions. I will say,
of course, we have broad context among business leaders around the country, and the reserve
bank presidents in particular have that, so they report in the beige book and then in person at
the FOMC meeting, and they do come back and they say that concerns about changes in trade
policy are arising, I think it's fair to say, and also you're beginning to hear reports of companies
holding off on making investments and hiring people, so right now we don't see that in the numbers
at all. The economy is very strong, the labor market is strong, growth is strong. We really don't
see it in the numbers. It's just not there, but -- so I would put it, then, as more of a risk.
0643山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:51:15.70ID:K3o3rS7F0
全然落ちねぇ
0645山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:51:30.74ID:+okOFQE50
このあたりのＥＴＦはつい昨日まで年内利上げ3回前提だったような・・

BLV/バンガード米国長期債券ETF
VCLT/バンガード米国長期社債ETF
VGLT/バンガード米国長期政府債券ETF
EDV/バンガード超長期米国債ETF
0646山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:51:42.70ID:+ODaffya0
８０年代中頃まで東証って手書きで板寄せやってたんだぜ
それを手で入力して電光掲示板に値段が出てた
0649山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:52:08.24ID:AHWcm+nhd
今夜のECBも所詮は外部要因でダウには影響無いな
0650山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:52:12.52ID:Nq6oZpXwd
>>633
中間選挙あるのに？
0652山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:52:45.71ID:8W+D2zVA0
パウエルはユダヤ人じゃないからとんでもない暴落を起こす運命
だがいつかわからない
0653山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:52:59.31ID:qgOBT750M
>>628
うおーマジか
これ本当ならダウ近いうちに二万切るぞ
0656山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 03:53:24.12ID:IHiBaBkg0
>> STEVE LIESMAN: Steve Liesman, CNBC. Mr. Chairman, you said there's a difference of
opinion among economists, but looking at the longer run GDP growth rates for the members of
the committee, there's not a whole lot of difference. It's 1-8 to 2 or 1-7 to 2, depending how
you count it. Is that showing us that not a single member of the committee, including yourself,
Mr. Chairman, agrees with economists over at the White House that they can achieve long-run
sustained growth rates above or at 3% or higher? Do you believe in that?
>> CHAIRMAN: You know, first of all, that's a reasonable range, I think. It's not that we're
all on the same number, but there are a range of views about potential growth, and there's so
much uncertainty around this. You know, we don't -- the thing about fiscal policy is you don't
have thousands of incidents to -- you know, to -- you don't have big data in a way. You have
very small data. You've got only a few instances here, so you have a lot of uncertainty around
what the effects could be. They could be large. We hope they're large, but I think our approach
is going to be to watch and see and hope that, in fact, we do get significant effects to -- you
know, to potential growth out of the tax bill, and we're just going to have to see.
>> (Off microphone).
>> CHAIRMAN: I think we're looking at a reasonable range of estimates, and we're putting
-- different participants are putting different estimates in, and we're going to be waiting and seeing
0658山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:53:58.69ID:AHWcm+nhd
次の満月あたりが危ないな...
0661山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:54:23.29ID:qgOBT750M
>>642
流石にこれはヤバイだろうな
そらダウも下がるわ
0663山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:54:53.27ID:k+Z5tyT70
前回までのパウＬ!!
「FRBは市場を助けたり傷つけたりするものではなぁい！！！」
この男らしい発言によって市場は力強く下げたが、今日のパウエルは？
0664山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:55:01.29ID:+ODaffya0
為替がさえないな
これじゃ日経横横だな
0666山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:55:46.87ID:F+fWBbWSa
なんにも玉仕入れてないのに
下げとかマジで止めて〜
0668山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:56:07.80ID:prJdfRPb0
>>646
株式市場も手振り使ってたけど　今でも使ってるのって卸売市場くらいだよな　　

あのおっさんどもは何で今でも手振り使ってんだろ？
0669山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 03:56:15.36ID:AHWcm+nhd
今週の末に安倍支持率がどれだけ回復してるかだな
0670山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:56:24.21ID:IHiBaBkg0
>> DONNA BORAK: Donna BORAK with CNN. You said earlier that it's still a little too early
to declare victory on inflation. I wanted to circle back on a question that was asked at the
initial Press Conference about what is does the fed say in regards to the inflation target
as symmetric? Like, has the committee given any further thought in terms of how comfortable
it would be rising above, whether it goes higher than 2.1, if it reaches 2.2, 2.3, and for how long,
and now that you're planning to hold these regular Press Conferences starting next year, how
do you explain -- how do you plan to explain that to the American people that inflation is not
overrunning?
>> CHAIRMAN: You know, what we've said in our statement of longer-run principles and
monetary policy strategy is that the committee would be concerned if inflation were to run
persistently above or below 2%, persistently above or below 2%, and that's what we mean by
symmetric. We're looking at it equally on either side, and it's a matter of persistent overruns.
We know that inflation is going to bounce around. For example, as I mentioned, later this summer
there's a good chance that headline inflation will move up above 2% because of oil prices.
Things buffet inflation back and forth, but -- so we acknowledge that, we understand that,
and if inflation were to persistently run above or below 2%, then we would be using our tools to
try to move inflation back in the direction of the target. We do understand, though, that we don't
have the ability to precisely hit that target, so we expect that inflation will be above or below,
and we just hope that that happens on a symmetric basis.
0671ドル円の人 ◆lODgTgypIc
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 03:56:27.60ID:UYlZ8k2D0
ふぉーまっく　は　ゼンモ
0674山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:56:54.44ID:FHAWxqnq0
>>661
グーグル翻訳しても何がなんでもインフレ２％やるぞ程度しかわからん。
何がヤバいん？
0675山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 03:56:58.64ID:8ffQNmI/0
日経は外人の年初からの売り越しがまだ半分くらいしか買い戻せてないしょ、そこそこ粘るじゃないか
0680山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:57:56.90ID:IHiBaBkg0
>> MARTY CRUTSINGER: Marty, associated press. At this meeting, you hiked the funds rate,
you changed the dot plot to move from 3 to 4 for this year, and you took out a sentence that
you had been using for years about how long rates might stay low, but you say that none of
this signals a change in policy views. But shouldn't we see from this combination of things
that the Fed is moving to a tighter policy?
>> CHAIRMAN: I think what you should see is that the economy is continuing to make
progress. The economy has strengthenened so much since I joined the Fed, you know, in
2012 and even over the last couple of years. The economy's in a very different place.
Unemployment was 10% at the height of the crisis, 3.8% now and moving lower, so really,
what you -- the decision you see today is another sign that the U.S. economy is in great
shape. Growth is strong, labor markets are strong, inflation is close to target, and that's
what you're seeing. For many years, as I mentioned, many years we had interest rates
held low to support economic activity, and it's been clear that as we've gotten closer to
our statutory goals, we should normalize policy, and that's really what we've been consistently
doing for some years now.
0681山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 03:57:59.77ID:AHWcm+nhd
22,929
日経平均CFD
今日は23000乗せるな...
0682山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 03:58:05.21ID:qgOBT750M
>>674
いや何か雰囲気的に
0684山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 03:58:30.77ID:fnDDpvjd0
>>661
The economy is very strong, the labor market is strong, growth is strong.

これくらいなら訳せるやろ？
0685山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 03:58:32.73ID:+ODaffya0
アフリカの証券取引所って今も手書きでやってるのかな
0686山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 03:58:34.31ID:FHAWxqnq0
>>671
先物チャート的にはどこにふぉーまっくがあったかもわからんｗ
セクスィヨコヨコ
0688山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 03:59:06.76ID:AHWcm+nhd
おはよう観るか
0690山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 03:59:20.16ID:FHAWxqnq0
>>682
良いと思います。その感性に俺もついていくわ
0693山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 04:00:17.12ID:IHiBaBkg0
>> HEATHER LONG: Heather long from the Washington Post. Can you give us an update on
what the FOMC think business wages, are we finally going to see that wage growth pick up this
year? I know you're forecasting a little bit more inflation, but is that going to translate through
to wage growth?
>> CHAIRMAN: You know, wages have been gradually moving up Erle. Earlier in the recovery,
they were -- there are many different wage measures, of course, but just to generalize, wages were
running roughly around 2%, and they've moved gradually up between 2% to 3% as the labor market has
become stronger and stronger. I think it's fair to say that some of us -- and I certainly would have
expected wages to react more to the very significant reduction in unemployment that we've had, as
I mentioned, from 10% to 3.8%. Part of that can be explained by low productivity, which is something
we've talked about at the committee and elsewhere, but nonetheless, I think we had anticipated and
many people have anticipated that wages -- in a world where we're hearing lots and lots about labor
shortages, everywhere we go now we hear about labor shortages, but where's the wage reaction,
so it's a bit of a puzzle. I wouldn't say it's a miss industry, but it's a bit of a puzzle, and, frankly, I do
think there's a lot to like about low unemployment, and one of the things is you will see pretty much
people who want to get jobs -- not everybody, but people who want to get jobs, many of them will
be able to get jobs. You will see wages go up. You'll see people at the -- sort of the margins of the
labor force having an opportunity to get back and work. They benefit from that, society benefits
from that, so there are a lot of things to really like, including higher wages, as you asked.
Our role, though, is also to -- you know, to make sure that maximum employment happens in
a context of price stability and financial stability, which is why we're gradually raising rates.
0695山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:00:52.27ID:qgOBT750M
>>684

┐(´・ω・｀)┌
0698山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:00:59.52ID:AHWcm+nhd
次の9月の利上げもこんな感じで乗り切るんだろうな
0699山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:01:13.21ID:prJdfRPb0
>>687
そんなパウエルさんが来年からは月イチ発言するんだぜ

ワクワクするだろ？
0702山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:02:08.11ID:IHiBaBkg0
>> DON LEE: Just a follow-up on -- Don Lee from the LA Times. On both inflation and
unemployment, the new projections for unemployment lowered them before and inflation
higher, and how much is the Fed willing to accept as an overshoot for both of those
before it affects policy?
>> CHAIRMAN: You mentioned that unemployment moved down and inflation moved
up by truly small amounts, if you look at the summary of economic projections. Things are
moving by just a tick or even a semi-tick between now and March, and you asked, you know
-- I mean, I think we take a longer-run view that we're shooting for -- we're aiming for 2%
inflation -- inflation around 2%. We know that it'll be above or below. We're not going to --
we didn't overreact, I think, to inflation being under 2%. We won't overreact to it be being
over 2%, and I think we'll be using tools to move it in the direction of the target if it moves
away from the target persistently, as I mentioned.
In terms of unemployment, you know, you have to acknowledge that we are -- no one
really knows with certainty what the level of the natural rate of unemployment is, the rate
that is sustainable over a long period of time, and we know that probably that rate has declined
as the U.S. population has become more educated, as it has become older, older and more
educated people have lower unemployment rates. We don't know this with precision, so
we have to be learning as we go. We've got to be looking at data and informed by what's
coming in, and as I mentioned, I think, at the last Press Conference, estimates by members
of the committee have moved down by a full percentage point since maybe 2012 as we've
learned -- as unemployment has dropped and inflation hasn't really reacted, so I can't give
you a precise number, but I just -- you know, we will be very much informed by incoming
data, and this uncertainty is why -- the fact that we live in that uncertainty is why we've
been gradually raising rates. We're not waiting for inflation to show up, we're going ahead
and moving gradually and trying to navigate between two risks, really. One would be moving
too quickly, inflation never gets back to target. If we do that -- and the other is moving
too slowly, and then we have too much inflation or financial instability, and we have to
raise quickly, and that can also have bad outcomes.
0703山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:02:27.33ID:F+V/RZ0d0
利上げ加速だと円安にはなるけどダウ下がるから結局日経上がらないよな
0704山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:02:27.36ID:YHuxuZi70
>>694
ウォールストリート・ジャーナル（ＷＳＪ）
中国への関税措置の適用について、早ければ金曜日にも適用開始するとの報道

こりゃ逃げといた方がいいな
0709山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:03:32.62ID:DqGRYoZV0
わくわくしながら下で待ってたが無理そうだな
織り込み済みって都市伝説かと思ってた
0710山師さん＠トレード中
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2018/06/14(木) 04:03:53.20ID:+ODaffya0
やっぱ為替は上がらんな
外人は東京の昼は絶対円高誘導してくる
0711山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:04:02.56ID:AHWcm+nhd
ダウ プラテンくっぞ〜
0713山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:05:08.35ID:AHWcm+nhd
何もかも想定内だったからなあ
0715山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:05:22.04ID:oxRc2+cA0
>>708
ガクトコイン（スピンドル）、公開一ヶ月足らずで公募価格から約600分の1まで暴落
0716山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:05:44.70ID:etVfLrBI0
>>710
何で円高誘導するの？
今円安誘導して黒田がゼロ金利解除の方が効果あると思うけど…
0718山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:06:00.21ID:oxRc2+cA0
ダウナス不死鳥過ぎて笑うわ
0719山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:06:17.59ID:1IuC6spBa
為替なんなの
0720山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:06:29.87ID:+ODaffya0
知らんが最近昼は絶対円高に振れる
このせいで日経も上がらん
0721山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:06:33.11ID:Nq6oZpXwd
今後二回の利上げでも債券は3パー越えずか。
織り込み済みって事か。
0723山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:07:14.91ID:IHiBaBkg0
>> CHRIS CONDON: Chris Condon, Bloomberg News. Mr. Chairman, I have a couple questions
about the interest the Fed pays on excess resense, and you mentioned, of course, that the IOER
was raised 20 basis points, and that's a result of the upward drift of the effective funds rate in
that target range. Do you think that's going to resolve that issue or might there be further action
required by the committee in the future to continue log IOER relative to the midpoint of the range,
and further, was there discussion among the committee today about what's causing that? Is it purely
technical, perhaps related to bill issuance, or is it telling you something about the level of scarcity
and truly excess bank reserves. Thank you. (Reserves not resense)
>> CHAIRMAN: Thanks. I would say that remember the important thing is that we want the
federal funds rate to trade in the target range. That's the whole idea. IOER is the principal tool
by which we assure that that will happen, and we've said, you know -- in our basic documents
that we will adjust the use of our tools as appropriate. We don't expect to have to do this often
or again, but we're not sure about that. If we is have to do it again, we'll do it -- if we have to do
it again, we'll do it again. again, don't expect it to happen. You asked why, and of course we're
looking carefully at that. The truth is we don't know with any precision. Really, no one does.
You can't run experiments with one affected and not the other. You know, I think there's a lot
of probability on the idea of just high bill supply leads to higher repo costs, higher money market
rates generally, and the arbitrage pulls up the federal funds rate toward the IOER. We don't know
that's the only effect and we're going to have to be watching and learning. Frankly, we don't have
to know today. What we need is to have the federal funds rate trade in the range, and that's
what this minor technical adjustment accomplishes
0726山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:07:53.62ID:bFP66xBM0
ガクトはどれだけ関わってんだろな
取り分大したことなさそうだけど
0728山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:08:50.41ID:+ODaffya0
為替が上がらなきゃ日経は上がらんだろ
0729山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:09:00.27ID:IHiBaBkg0
>> EDWARD LAWRENCE: Edward Lawrence from Fox Business. So with the numbers that
we're looking at, you talked about more people getting jobs, the wages are increasing, are we
seeing a -- with the fiscal policy, a fundamental shift in the economy where we have lower natural
unemployment, also possibly a lower rate of natural unemployment and lower inflation?
>> CHAIRMAN: Your question -- your first question really is do we think the natural rate of
unemployment is lower? So I think we do believe it has moved down significantly over a long period
of time. We don't think that the natural rate of unemployment -- you know, it's not one of those
variables that moves around a lot. It tends to be driven by slow-moving variables like the education
level, the population, like the functioning of the labor market and things like that, so, you know, it may
-- it may have moved down two on a cyclical basis lower, as the economy gets hotter and hotter.
There's some possibility of that, but, you know, the thing is if you look back, there have been a lot
of studies done and realtime estimates of the natural rate of unemployment have uncertainty bands,
which are quite wide, so we have to remember that and very much be guided by the incoming data.
You asked about inflation. You know, inflation, we look at the 2% inflation objective as something
that central banks, the Fed really control, and we have to be strongly committed to achieving that
using our tools to do that. I think in recent years the dominant force has been, you know, disinflationary,
had been pushing down on inflation, so we've been pushing back up. Of course, all those years when
we were growing up, it was the opposite, inflation was too high and central banks were constantly
pushing down.
It's really important that inflation not fall below 2%, that inflation expectations remain well anchored
at 2%, very important, because the implications of inflation below 2% are that you're closer to the 0 lower
bound, meaning the fed has less room to cut, meaning we'll spend more time there and we won't be able
to do the job that we're assigned to do for our citizens.
0732山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:09:56.87ID:DqGRYoZV0
仮想通貨は差し押さえできないって出てたからますます黒く染まりそう
0733山師さん＠トレード中
垢版 |
2018/06/14(木) 04:10:01.34ID:GdmYRqzh0
この時間に久しぶりに起きてきたけどまともなこと言ってるの一人くらいしかいないな・・・
■ このスレッドは過去ログ倉庫に格納されています
ニューススポーツなんでも実況