0761山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:18:21.08ID:W6miKkv4a>>760 またの間に刺すのよ 0762山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:18:22.71ID:fnDDpvjd0 パウエル議長 インフレが２％超えても過剰反応しない 0763山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:18:34.57ID:IHiBaBkg0 >> DAVID HARRISON: Hi. David Harrison with Dow Jones. Where do you see the neutral interest rate is right now? Do you think it's -- do you see it sort of inching up because of the recent fiscal stimulus measures? And how will you know when we're getting close to that neutral point? So if -- you know, if inflation stays around 2%, doesn't go above 2% for a while, do you see a need to actually exceed that neutral point? >> CHAIRMAN: So I would just point you to the range of estimates at the committee, which I think is 2 1/4 to 3.5, and the median is 2.9, right in there, so that's the range of estimates of the nominal neutral rate of interest, and we do understand that there's high uncertainty around the level, but that's kind of -- you can think of 2.9 as being -- which is sort of a full percentage point away of where Fed funds is going to trade after today's decision. You asked is the neutral rate moving up because of fiscal policy? Yes. I mean, there should be in effect -- if you have increased deficits, that should put upward pressure on, you know, a few tenths, let's say. Again, we're estimating these things. It's one of the unobserved variables. It's very hard to -- we shouldn't try to speak about it without a lot of precision or confidence, but yes, that should put upper pressure on it. How will we know? You've got to look at inflation. You've got to look at all the indicators in the economy, look at inflation, look at unemployment, look at what's happening in the job market, and inflation's really important. It's worth noting that the last two business cycles didn't end with high infileting, they ended with financial instability, so that's something we also need to keep our eye on 0764山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:18:36.03ID:6pY8SpKY0 和歌山の事件、犬から覚せい剤検出だって 0765山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:18:46.04ID:bFP66xBM0>>754 今日の24時にロシアとサウジの開幕戦 0766山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:18:49.09ID:K3o3rS7F0 こっから大きく振れることはなさそうか つまらんのぉ 0767山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:19:00.33ID:+okOFQE50 ラスベガスのスポーツベッティングで、 「日本がグループリーグ敗退する事」に対しての賭けってできる？ 0768山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:19:10.79ID:JoyZFPM00 日本の銀行，だいじょうぶかよ… 0769山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:19:18.94ID:lXQEFH1X0 力尽きそう 0770お2018/06/14(木) 04:19:28.44ID:vNtGPvVGa>>768 なんで？ 0771山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:20:21.59ID:+ODaffya0 金利も想定内だし夏まで無風かね 0772山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:20:43.12ID:W6miKkv4a 今日のザラ場終値23300円くらいだろうな 0773山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:21:42.02ID:IHiBaBkg0 >> VIRGINIE: Virginie. Have you talked during the meeting about when the fed is going to remove or change the word "accommodative" that described the monetary policy for almost ten years? And could this change in the vocabulary make the market nervous? And have you thought already of some options to know how you're going to call it down the road? >> CHAIRMAN: Yes, that is something that we discuss. We look at all the language. As you know, we made a significant number of changes at this meeting. So language gets in the statement, and then, you know, the economy changes. That's what happens. We really -- our approach to policy hasn't changed, and, you know, as I mentioned earlier, for a long time the economy has needed to accommodate the monetary policy. As the economy recovered, we will be at a place relatively soon when, again, assuming we stay on this path, when interest rates will be in the zone of what FOMC participants think is roughly neutral, and at that point, it would no longer be accurate for us to say that the committee thinks that policy is accommodative. We know that's coming. We kind of don't think it's here yet, but it's certainly coming, and I think the market will understand that. I mean, the real message is that you're getting close to the neutral rate. It's a characterization about where policy is, it's not a statement, really, that should upset the markets, but, you know, we'll obviously discuss it carefully in meetings and communicate about it, so -- 0774山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:22:21.09ID:oxRc2+cA0>>764 答え合わせ完了だな 0775山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:22:29.49ID:W6miKkv4a おそらくＦＦ金利は80年くらいの16パーせんとくらいまで上がる インフレと景気過熱はすでに始まってて誰にも止められなくなる 0776山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:22:34.27ID:8W+D2zVA0 動かなそうだな 寝るか 0777山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:22:50.71ID:tx4YxQ2F0 しばらく円安を回避かどうか でも眠い 0778山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:23:12.85ID:PfCwxm560 ポーランド8位強すぎワロタ 0779山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:23:21.82ID:lXQEFH1X0 おわた・・・ 0780山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:23:41.49ID:IHiBaBkg0 (Off microphone) >> Thank you very much. Now it's from the Japan's newspaper. Would you expand on the -- on your views on the downside risks -- downside risks, especially in regard to our trade issues? Many people are in the -- key allies of the United States are concerned that the United States may destabilize the underpinnings of the international order the United States has created and built up in the post-war environment, so that will, of course, have a very negative economic implications for the global economy as well as the U.S. economy, so would you have -- can I have your views on that? >> CHAIRMAN: Sure. So as I mentioned earlier, I'm really committed to staying in our lane on things. We have very important jobs assigned to us by Congress, and that's maximum employment, stable prices, financial stability. Trade is explicitly assigned to the executive branch by Congress and not to us, so we don't really seek to play a role in trade policy. We're not at that table. Those powers and decisions are given to others, and so we want to stick to what we do, and as I mentioned earlier, we do hear from our business contacts, which are extensive in the United States, and we do report on that in the minutes, and I've just mentioned what those are. There's concern that trade changes could be disruptive, and as I also mentioned, we don't see it in the numbers yet, we really don't. We see a very strong economy across a bunch of fronts. It's not for everyone, but most people who want to find a job -- there are people who have not felt the recession yet, but broadly speaking, it's a good economy 0781山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:23:42.80ID:JoyZFPM00>>764 ちょっと面白かった。本当だとしたらアホだ 0782山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:24:21.53ID:+ODaffya0 そういえば安倍ちゃん２０１６年頃リーマン並みの危機とか言ってたよねｗ 0783山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:24:39.21ID:W6miKkv4a 完全雇用下では賃金は垂直方向に上昇しインフレと消費拡大を起こすわけです 0784山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:25:02.51ID:IHiBaBkg0 >> STEVE BECKNER: Steve Beckner, Mr. Chairman, freelance journalist reporting for NPR. About financial conditions, which worries you more, warnings that rising short-term rates are bringing the yield closer to inversion or the fact that long rates have risen very slowly and, in fact, are nearly 20 basis points below their recent high. How do you account for the fact that long rates have been so slow to rise, and what does it say about the inflation outlook as well? >> CHAIRMAN: So let me briefly mention the yield curve. I mean, the yield curve is something people are talking about a lot, including FOMC participants, and you have a range of views. It's something we're going to continue to be talking about, but it's only one of many things, of course, that we talk about. I think that that discussion is really about what is appropriate policy and how do we think about policy as we approach the neutral rate, how do we understand what the neutral rate is, how do we know where it is and what are the consequences of being above or below it. That's really what -- when people are talking about the slope of the yield curve, that's really what they're talking about. We know why the yield curve is flattening. It's because we're raiseings the federal funds rate. I think you asked the harder question is what's happening with long rates, and there are many things that move long rates around. Of course, there's an embedded expectation of the path of short rates, there's the term premium, which has been very low by historical standards, so arguments are made that a flatter curve rate has a signal in it. In addition, I think what you saw most recently that you referred to, Steve, was just on risk-on, risk-off. In a risk-off environment, people want to own U.S. treasuries and you see, you know, Treasury prices go up, rates go down quite a lot, so -- but I think ultimately, you know, what we're -- what we really care about is what's the appropriate stance of policy, and there may be a signal in that long-term rate about what is the neutral rate, and I think that's why people are paying attention to the yield curve 0785山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:25:26.52ID:bFP66xBM0>>774 ここからやろ 誰がやったか？いや違うな 隠蔽された物証を見つけ、奴にどう結び付けるか ここまでやって完了やろ 0786山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:26:15.52ID:IHiBaBkg0 >> NANCY: Nancy Marshall Genzer with market. Companies are buying shares at a rising rate, consumer debt is rising. Are we in a credit bubble? Is that something you're worried about? >> CHAIRMAN: So if you look at households, you do not see excess credit growth, you don't see high levels of credit going out, so not so much households, and that's really where the problems were before the financial crisis was particularly amonghousehold borrowing, around mortgages. The banks, the capital is significantly higher. If you ask about nonfinancial corporates, that's really where leverage is at -- levels that are high relative to history, but defaults are low, interest rates are low. You know, so it's -- that's something we're watching very carefully, but, again, I don't think we see it as -- I think there are a range of views on that, but we are watching nonfinancial corporates. Households are in good shape, though, and that is so important because that's where -- you know, that's where we got in trouble before, and it's often around property and particularly housing where you see real problems emerge. We don't really see that now, so we take some Solis from that 0787山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:26:33.70ID:W6miKkv4a グレートローテーションは始まったばかりなのに株売る知恵遅れな 0788山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:27:35.64ID:+okOFQE50 経口摂取したら致死する量の覚醒剤って何グラム？ それの末端価格おいくら万円？ 0789山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:27:56.17ID:K3o3rS7F0 最前線の板が薄過ぎてアルゴも暴れられない感じかｗ 0790山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:28:05.86ID:W6miKkv4a 知恵遅れは株やるな、な パチンコだけにしとけ 0791山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:28:16.85ID:lXQEFH1X0 ぶん投げ開始きたか 0792山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:28:23.94ID:8ffQNmI/0 ９月利上げ織込みに金利と為替がまたゴニョゴニョやるのが鬱陶しい 0793山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:28:29.23ID:IHiBaBkg0 >> MYLES: Chair, you referenced a minute ago the idea of cushion or the fact that the fed doesn't have as much when rates are low, inflation is low, and I'm wondering if you or the committee has thought about your move to raise interest rates as partly responding to the economy but partly giving yourselves room to navigate in the inevitable future recession, whenever that was to come, and do you think that has played a part in your outlook policy or recent policy decisions or is it purely based on what the economy's doing? >> CHAIRMAN: It doesn't play any part in my thinking, and I'll tell you why. If you raise rates too quickly, you're just increasing the likelihood of a recession, and that's exactly what you don't want do. The best thing you can do -- I think the things run in the other direction. If you're worried about going back to the lower bound, risk management would suggest that you go a little slower in raising rates and tolerate. That's likely to be a more sustainable strategy to get further away from the 0 lower bound. I think we're far enough away now, though, that the risks are kind of balanced, so I think it's more just -- we're just looking at the economy and what does it need and how do we sustain the expansion, keep the labor market strong and try to keep inflation at near 2%. 0794山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:28:41.30ID:uw+z1yQn0 なんか言ったな 0795山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:29:06.78ID:JoyZFPM00 犬って死んだら焼かないの？ 0796山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:29:10.79ID:39MllYxL0>>787 ダウ大量に売ってみましたが。 0797山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:29:56.29ID:bFP66xBM0>>788 1グラムって言ってるけど、経験の無いオムツのぼけ老人ならもっと少なくても死ぬやろ 0798山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:30:14.02ID:W6miKkv4a>>795 どらむかんで焼いて灰になるまでとでも？ 犬のステーキになるだけやで 0799山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:31:17.58ID:JMWWy/AD0 今日は越後屋でお肉買おうかな 0800山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:31:38.12ID:bfgJ8w7D0>>795 保健所がもっていって焼却してくれる 0801山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:31:49.25ID:W6miKkv4a バーベキューもしたことないなーんも知らんやつばっかやんここ特にこの時間帯は 0802山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:32:31.45ID:K3o3rS7F0 小型犬でも埋めるとなるとそれなりの穴がいるし 深く埋めないととんでもないことになるしｗ ペット霊園で火葬がポピュラーなんじゃ？ 0803山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:32:59.25ID:mepDw7V+0 ワールドカップ期間中は動かんだろうな 0804山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:33:19.95ID:Nq6oZpXwd こっからが本番 0805山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:33:36.89ID:JoyZFPM00 ってことは犬が使ってた残されたものから覚せい剤が…ってことか 0806山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:34:14.34ID:W6miKkv4a>>802 おまえの情報がテレビだけの引きこもりの脳内ではな 0807山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:34:23.19ID:bFP66xBM0 今は移動火葬場ってのも有るしな 電話一本で来てくれる 嫁が火葬を希望強く希望したが、ドンファンが土葬を希望し 庭に埋めたんだっけ 0808山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:34:51.65ID:IHiBaBkg0 >> MARK HAMRICK: I'm wondering -- I'm sorry. Mark HamRick with Bank Rate. You talked earlier about your wage growth and basic message to workers. How confident are you that when we do see stock buy-backs and the like, the workers will get whatever your view of that share is as well and wage hikes in the near-term and in the foreseeable future. Thank you. >> CHAIRMAN: You know, we don't have the tools to control that. If companies choose to -- companies in our system are free to do what they can -- what they need to do once they've made profits and have cash to distribute, they can distribute it to their shareholders, they can buy them either through dividends or through buy-backs, they can pay workers. And we don't play a role in those decisions. The part that we focus on is maximum employment. That's our mandate, so we view maximum employment as the maximum sustainable level of employment, meaning it's not so much that it will cause the economy to overheat, and so I think we've been committed to that. I think we take that obligation very seriously, and, you know, over time, when -- when labor markets are strong and companies are hiring, we should see higher wages, but, again, we don't really have the tools that will address the distribution of profit and that kind of thing. >> Okay. Thank you 0809山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:35:08.99ID:+okOFQE50 確か、俺の記憶によるとペットは法律的には物扱いだった筈。 自分の所有物であるペットを火葬しようが土葬しようが、法的には何の問題もないんじゃないか？ 0810山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:35:17.53ID:DqGRYoZV0 犬は嫁がどうしても焼却してほしいって言ってたけどドンがずっと一緒にいたいって駄々こねた だから庭に埋めたってワイドショーでやってた それが掘り起こされるとは何という因果 0811山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:35:18.77ID:K3o3rS7F0>>806 あ、もう大丈夫です レスしないでね？ 0812山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:35:25.76ID:W6miKkv4a あほしかおらんし二度寝します 0813山師さん＠トレード中2018/06/14(木) 04:35:41.73ID:GNzOGTcJ0>>790 ＞知恵遅れは株やるな、な ＞パチンコだけにしとけ
